STORY:
Where will Y2K prognosticators be?

What are you doing for New Year's‹a year from now, that is? That's when Y2K arrives, and it's possible that computers, air-traffic radar, banking systems and utilities will be teetering. Forbes Magazine asked the experts and others about their plans.

Edward Yardeni, 48.
Chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities, New York, N.Y.

Says Y2K likely to cause recession.

"I'll be home in the suburbs with extra cash on hand, some boxes of spaghetti, bottled water and flashlights. I won't be running out into the woods with a shotgun‹I'd be too afraid of running into other guys with shotguns."

Gary North, 56.
Self-employed Y2K extremist, Fayetteville, Ark.; his Web site (gary north.com) prophesies Armageddon.

Will watch the chaos on television‹if it still works.

"I predict a stock market collapse; the breakdown of most postal services, banks and credit card companies; and a mass exodus of programmers, leaving no one to fix things."

James (Randy) Schwitz, 46.
Executive vice president, National Air Traffic Controllers Association, Washington, D.C.

No airplane trips.

"The only way the FAA will know if its Y2K fixes work will be when the clock ticks past midnight on Jan. 1, 2000‹during live traffic. I don't care to be one of their guinea pigs."

Scott Nason, 47.
Chief information officer, American Airlines, Fort Worth, Tex.

Early on Dec. 31, "We'll call Qantas Airlines in Australia. They'll hit the millennium 14 hours before we do." Then he'll throw an office party for his staff: "We'll start drinking after midnight, and they'll party until they fall asleep. If needed, I'll know where to find them."

Gregor Bailar, 35.
Executive vice president and chief information officer, National Association of Securities Dealers, Rockville, Md.

Might your account get deleted?

"Ludicrous. But I'll have paper printouts of my personal finances. Just in case."

Vito C. Peraino, 42.
Partner, Hancock Rothert & Bunshoft, Los Angeles, Calif.

"It will be the biggest litigation event in history, so I'll be busy with clients. Remember the L.A. riots? Very scary. The nature of this problem makes large-scale unrest conceivable."

Frank Ianna, 49.
President, AT&T Network Services, Basking Ridge, N.J.

Parent spent $600 million on Y2K. Will be at work, preparing contingency plans.

"Since we are an international company, we'll greet the New Year 24 times in one day." Sees the potential for trouble even earlier, on Sept. 9, 1999. "The computer could read '9999' as an error code. . . . But look on the bright side: It's one of the few instances where IT projects come in on time‹or else."

Peter de Jager, 43.
Consultant, Brampton, Ont., first sounded the Y2K alarm in 1993.

"My biggest fear is the media will ramp up the Y2K threat so high that people will panic and cause a run on the banks. Don't listen to the lunatics who tell you to head to a cabin in the woods with a year's worth of food."

John Panchery, 45.
Technology vice president, Securities Industry Association, New York, N.Y.

Will run SWAT teams working to stave off Y2K disaster.

"Anything we can't control, like utilities, is a liability. Wall Street's big computers are cooled by water and can't function without it. Some broker-dealers keep securities in safes with embedded chips‹but safes may not open come the year 2000."

Edward Yourdon, 54.
Y2K consultant; coauthor, Time Bomb 2000, New York, N.Y.

Says 15% of systems won't be fixed in time. Will stay in New Mexico, where rooftop solar panels free him from relying on power grid. "We won't be in any urban areas: Power outages could cause social unrest."

DATE: 1/19/99

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